Medicare-for-some about to go bust
Medicare-for-all will have to wait
The United States has a budgeting problem. I’m not talking about the debt ceiling - that’s just a distraction. Every couple of years congress will get together and vote to raise it. If the party controlling the legislative branch differs from the executive branch, one will extort the other to get low impact, high visibility laws passed. At the end no one wants to see the U.S. default on their debts.
No, what I’m talking about is the depletion of Medicare’s trust fund. The program is about to go bust. The official projection forecast it won’t be able to cover it’s expenses by 2026. That’s just 3 years from now. On top of it, these projects are notorious for unrealistic assumptions about economic growth and various cost-reductions.
If that wasn’t enough, social security is heading there too - though with a bit more breathing room. It is projected to be insolvent by 2034 - still 11 years from now. If you are under 50, expect the program to be significantly different from what your grandma has.
What can be done? There are four things I can think of. I will list them in the order of best to worst for society.
First, get healthcare and retirement out of the incompetent hands of the bureaucrats and central planners in the federal government - never gonna happen.
Second, reduce the benefits that are being offered. It is possible and will happen in one form or another. I don’t expect it to be a major change though as the politicians responsible for enacting such laws have little chance of reelection.
Third, raise taxes. I suspect that is even harder to do than benefit reduction. Medicare and social security are for retirees. They would naturally resist any changes. Tax payers on the other hand are unlikely to support additional transfers from the young and productive to the old and (on average) more wealthy.
Fourth and final, print the money. Bingo. Of course, thats’s inflationary. It’s an unelected, unaccountable and gradual wealth tax. But that’s a feature, not a bug.